What do you actually need to retire?
Based on your own spending and withdrawal rate — not a generic rule of thumb. See the exact math behind your number.
✓ All calculations happen in your browser — we never see your numbers
Social Security rules are complex and may change — treat this as a rough estimate, not a benefits calculation.
The "4% rule" comes from historical research (the Trinity Study and its successors) on how long a portfolio lasts under past market conditions. It's a widely-used assumption, not a guarantee — reasonable people debate whether it holds up going forward.
Adjust spending target for inflation?
Inflation rates change — this projects your spending forward in today's dollars to an assumed future amount. It's an assumption, not a forecast.
Your retirement number
$2,167,333
at a 4.0% withdrawal rate
At your current savings rate
29.2 years away
Gap at target age: $1,143,619
Monthly contribution needed to hit it on time: $3,695
Portfolio growth to your number
Coast FIRE number
$560,080
If you had this much saved now, it could grow to your number by your target retirement age with no more contributions — just compounding.
You'd need $500,080 more to coast from here.
Safe annual withdrawal from your current savings today: $2,400
The 4% withdrawal rate is a commonly cited guideline, not a guarantee. Retirement outcomes depend on market performance, inflation, healthcare costs, and longevity — none of which can be predicted. Consult a certified financial planner before making retirement decisions.
The 4% rule explained and its limits
The 4% rule suggests that if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in your first year of retirement, and adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year after, your money has historically had a strong chance of lasting 30 years based on past U.S. market data — most famously studied in what's often called the Trinity Study. It's a useful starting point for estimating how large a portfolio you need, not a guarantee, and reasonable people in the financial planning world genuinely debate whether 4% is still appropriate given today's valuations, lower bond yields than the historical study period, and the possibility of retiring for considerably longer than 30 years.
More conservative planners sometimes use 3-3.5% instead, especially for very early retirements that might need to last 40-50+ years rather than the 30-year window the original research focused on. This calculator lets you compare 3%, 4%, and 5% withdrawal rates side by side specifically so you're not anchored to a single number without seeing the tradeoffs.
Coast FIRE
Coast FIRE is the portfolio size at which, even if you stopped contributing entirely today, compound growth alone would carry your investments to your full retirement number by your target retirement age. Reaching Coast FIRE doesn't mean you're ready to retire — it means you have the flexibility to stop saving aggressively, take a lower-paying but more enjoyable job, or work part-time, without jeopardizing your eventual retirement number, since the growth from here is doing the remaining work on its own.
Why your number depends on spending, not income
Your retirement number is driven almost entirely by how much you spend annually, not how much you earn. Two people with identical six-figure incomes but very different spending habits will need dramatically different portfolio sizes to retire — the high spender needs a much larger number to sustain their lifestyle, while the frugal saver may reach financial independence years or decades sooner on the same income. This is also why the math rewards reducing spending twice over: it lowers the number you need and frees up more money to save toward it, compounding the effect in your favor.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 4% rule guaranteed to work?
No — it's based on historical market data and carries no guarantee for the future. It's a reasonable planning assumption, not a promise, and many planners now consider 3-3.5% more conservative for very long retirement horizons.
What's the difference between FIRE and Coast FIRE?
FIRE generally means you have enough saved to fully retire and live off withdrawals. Coast FIRE means you have enough saved that growth alone, with no further contributions, would get you to your full number by your target age — letting you ease off saving without derailing your retirement timeline.
Why does spending matter more than income for this number?
Because your retirement number is calculated directly from your annual spending divided by your withdrawal rate — income only matters indirectly, through how much it lets you save. Two savers with the same income but different spending habits will have very different retirement numbers.
Should I include Social Security in this calculation?
You can include a rough estimate, which reduces how much your portfolio alone needs to cover — but Social Security rules and benefit calculations are complex and may change, so treat any estimate as approximate rather than a precise projection.
What if I want to retire much earlier than a typical retirement age?
Consider using a more conservative withdrawal rate, since a much longer retirement horizon gives market downturns more time to potentially affect your portfolio's longevity. The 3% scenario this calculator shows is a more conservative reference point worth considering for very early retirement plans.